000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191438
TCDEP2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011
800 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS
THE SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON.  OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...WITH
THE FORMATION OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE CYCLONE SITUATED OVER SSTS NEAR 30C.  THE SHIPS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KT DURING THE PERIOD...BUT STILL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
THINKING...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
FIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  BY 72 HOURS..THE
CYCLONE WILL REACH MUCH COOLER SSTS AND SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER
QUICKLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.

THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...CONSISTENT WITH THE ANALYZED NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR.  GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER OVERNIGHT...THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8. THE GLOBAL 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYNOPTIC STEERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
IN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE AND BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST.  A
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36
HOURS AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AS THE CYCLONE MAKES
IT CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COAST.  

BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST AT THIS TIME.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 13.7N  99.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN