000
WTPZ42 KNHC 261445
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009
800 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
 
THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS OF IGNACIO HAVE SEPARATED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY WERE CRUCIAL
IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EARLY THIS MORNING.  MORE
RECENTLY...THE CENTER IS BECOMING APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS ABOUT 120 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE
REMAINING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON DATA T-NUMBERS
THAT HAVE DECREASED TO 2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES.  IGNACIO IS ALREADY
OVER SUB 26C SSTS AND IS HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATER.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR LESS.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IGNACIO IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
MORE WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE
WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 21.6N 124.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N 127.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.1N 129.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 27.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN