000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260832
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SHAPE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT AND
QUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IGNACIO IS ALREADY OVER COOLER
WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR EARLIER.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST
AT 12 KNOTS. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE SHALLOW
REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 21.1N 122.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.2N 124.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA