000 WTPZ42 KNHC 242039 TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009 200 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009 CORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. A CURVED BAND FEATURE HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE NOT BEEN DEPICTING A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOW BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND SHOWS STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26 DEG C SST ...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING AROUND THAT TIME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS...SO IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. THE CENTER IS STILL NOT THAT WELL-DEFINED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/9. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WESTWARD TO NEAR 125-130 W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK MODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS INDICATED BY DAY 5 AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO A WEAK AND SHALLOW REMNANT DISTURBANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 16.3N 117.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 16.7N 118.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 17.4N 120.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 18.4N 122.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 19.7N 123.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 22.8N 126.8W 40 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH