000
WTPZ42 KNHC 070238
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
 
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT UNWAVERING ENRIQUE
IS SUSTAINING A SMALL BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING 22 TO 23 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS AND IS MOVING WITHIN
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST.  AS A RESULT...IT IS ASSUMED THAT ENRIQUE WILL
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS WITH
DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS. 

ENRIQUE HAS SLOWED A BIT THIS EVENING...315/12...IN RESPONSE TO A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE
LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
UNTIL AFTER ENRIQUE DISSIPATES.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IMPLYING THAT THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL
DISSIPATION.    
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/0300Z 23.2N 129.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/1200Z 24.3N 130.7W    25 KT
 24HR VT     08/0000Z 25.5N 132.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     08/1200Z 26.6N 135.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN