000
WTPZ42 KNHC 061439
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ENRIQUE HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.  A FORTUITOUS 1015 UTC
AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE.  ENRIQUE IS ALREADY OVER SSTS BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
HEADING TOWARD EVEN COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE... CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS PREDICTED AND ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW IN A DAY
OR SO.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED MORE TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/15 KT.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD
WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 21.3N 127.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 22.2N 129.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 23.0N 132.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 23.2N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN