000
WTPZ42 KNHC 060840
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009
 
CONTRARY TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE INDICATING...ENRIQUE HAS REMAINED
DETACHED FROM FELICIA. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ENRIQUE
HAS SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE RING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL BUT
STRONG AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE RESILIENT CLOUD PATTERN
AND A 0300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45
KNOTS. NEITHER THE SHEAR NOR THE PROXIMITY TO FELICIA HAVE WEAKENED
ENRIQUE...BUT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER 24.4 DEGREES CELSIUS
WATERS AND IS HEADING TOWARD EVEN COLDER SSTS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
THE KISS OF DEATH AND ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS.
 
ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS
WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO BE
STEERED MORE THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN
ACKNOWLEDGE THE PRESENCE OF ENRIQUE...AND THE ONES THAT DO...MOVE
THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0900Z 20.7N 125.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 127.8W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N 130.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/1800Z 23.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA