000
WTPZ42 KNHC 052045
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
 
DESPITE A LIMITED STRENGTHENING IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES THE THINKING OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING ENRIQUE AS
IT ENCOUNTERS GREATER SHEAR AND COOLER SST AT PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER
LATITUDES.  FELICIA IS INGESTING MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH LEAVING ENRIQUE WITH A WANING MOISTURE SOURCE FROM
THE EAST. THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AND ASYMMETRICAL CENTER WAS
ANALYZED AT 18Z NORTH OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION...AND THE
CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADANT WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORBALE.  FARTHER WEST...VISIBLE SATELLITE
CLEARLY SHOWS FELICIA HAVING A DELETERIOUS EFFECT ON ENRIQUE...AND
HWRF/GHM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION WITHIN 36
HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY WILL BE ABSORBED INTO FELICIA.
 
ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE
INDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO FELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY
TURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST
MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 24-36 HOURS.

 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 18.4N 123.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.3N 127.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 20.8N 130.3W    25 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER SOWKO