000
WTPZ42 KNHC 051441
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
 
A BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED THE
APPEARANCE OF ENRIQUE WITH A SLIGHT SATELLITE-BASED ADJUSTMENT OF
THE DIFFUSE CENTER TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE BEST CONVECTION. 
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS DIRECTION WILL SOON LEAD TO WEAKENING GIVEN ITS
RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MUCH-STRONGER FELICIA.  VARIOUS
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING HWRF AND GHM...INDICATE A FAIRLY RAPID
DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY IS
ABSORBED INTO FELICIA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DISSIPATION
TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 48 HOURS.    

 
ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE INDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO
FELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST BY 24
HOURS...MOST MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 36 HOURS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 17.3N 122.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.3N 126.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 19.7N 131.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER SOWKO