000
WTPZ42 KNHC 050831
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
 
A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE IS
LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS
HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE...BUT QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0230 UTC SHOWED A
COUPLE OF 50-KT WIND VECTORS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
DETERIORATED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
THE QUIKSCAT DATA. ENRIQUE SHOULD WEAKEN PRIMARILY DUE TO NORTHERLY
SHEAR...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN A DAY OR TWO BY
THE MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE FELICIA
LOCATED NOT TOO FAR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN
THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13
KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN
MORE TO THE WEST AS ENRIQUE OR THE REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY APPROACHES
FELICIA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO
WEST TRACK AND DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE BEYOND A DAY OR TWO.
   
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 16.8N 120.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 17.7N 122.6W    40 KT
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 125.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N 127.5W    25 KT
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA