000
WTPZ42 KNHC 050259
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE HAS
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR
EAST OF HURRICANE FELICIA. THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH ENRIQUE HAS MARKEDLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...
SHRINKING TO A SMALL AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND
35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS DECREASED TO 45 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THE SYSTEM IS 295/13. WHILE THE
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC STEERING MECHANISM FOR ENRIQUE IS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT
OF MOTION OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF ENRIQUE. AFTER 24
HOURS THE GFS AND ECMWF WEAKEN ENRIQUE AND ABSORB ITS REMNANTS INTO
FELICIA. THE NOGAPS MAINTAINS ENRIQUE AS A STRONGER SYSTEM...WHICH
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE UKMET ALLOWS MORE DISTANCE TO BUILD BETWEEN THE
SYSTEMS...BUT DISSIPATES ENRIQUE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. BECAUSE
OF THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER
ENRIQUE WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.  AFTER THAT
TIME...ENRIQUE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 27C
AND MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED
WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
CONDITIONS...WITH A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS
BEFORE DISSIPATION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 16.0N 119.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W    45 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N 123.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 18.8N 125.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.1N 127.2W    30 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N 131.5W    25 KT
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 19.0N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN