000
WTPZ42 KNHC 042035
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

ENRIQUE IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS RATHER SMALL.
THERE IS A DRY SLOT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION
THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
GIVES A 50-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A
LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS CLOSE
TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...COOLER WATERS WILL
LIKELY CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE PRESENCE OF NEIGHBORING
TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. SOME
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ENRIQUE SWINGING AROUND THE
CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND MOVING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ENCOUNTER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS AND ECMWF...PREDICT
THAT FELICIA WILL ABSORB ENRIQUE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THAT FELICIA...ALTHOUGH IT IS THE STRONGER
SYSTEM... DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGER CIRCULATION THAN ENRIQUE
AT THIS TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AROUND 290/14. AGAIN THE TWO MAIN
STEERING MECHANISMS ARE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE
CIRCULATION OF FELICIA. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE FORMER WILL BE THE
MORE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF ENRIQUE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS ALSO
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS...WITH THE
FORMER BEING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 15.0N 118.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 15.9N 120.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.8N 122.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 17.6N 123.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 18.4N 125.7W    55 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 19.5N 129.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N 134.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 19.0N 138.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH