000
WTPZ42 KNHC 041436
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
 
THE TROPICAL STORM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW BECOMING
MORE DISTINCT.  TAKING A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB GIVES 50 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.  ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENRIQUE WILL WEAKEN...AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NEIGHBORING TROPICAL STORM FELICIA.
HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A TOTALLY REALISTIC
INITIALIZATION OF THE TWO STORMS.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE
LATEST SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NUDGED UPWARD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BRISK 290/14.  THE TWO PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISMS ARE A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE STORM AND THE CIRCULATION OF FELICIA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHICH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONES WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM.  EVEN THOUGH THE GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT FELICIA WILL DOMINATE...AT THE MOMENT
ENRIQUE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. 
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT
COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT IS BETWEEN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/1500Z 14.7N 117.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.2N 123.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     07/1200Z 18.5N 129.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE