000
WTPZ42 KNHC 040833
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009
 
ENRIQUE HAS A RAGGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS BEING RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO SO THE STORM IS
BEING HELD AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

RECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT
ENRIQUE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY DUE TO
SOME INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND MOST ARE FAVORING
STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF T.D. EIGHT-E INSTEAD OF ENRIQUE.  THERE IS
LARGE MODEL SPREAD AFTER 24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE FORWARD
SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY.  THE
NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TOWARDS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENRIQUE MAY NOT
SURVIVE AFTER A FEW DAYS IF T.D. EIGHT-E BECOMES THE DOMINANT
SYSTEM.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS EITHER NO OR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  NORTHERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DECREASE...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOTCHED DOWNWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS FORECAST STILL LIES AT THE UPPER
LIMIT OF THE GUIDANCE...VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT IS
LIKELY THAT THIS CHANGE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH SINCE THE HWRF SHOWS
ALMOST NO INTENSIFICATION AND THE GFDL DISSIPATES ENRIQUE IN ABOUT
42 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0900Z 14.0N 115.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.9N 117.1W    40 KT
 24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.4N 120.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 123.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     08/0600Z 17.5N 131.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG