000 WTPZ42 KNHC 040252 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009 800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009 THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 3.0 FROM TAFB...AND BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MODEST MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF ENRIQUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST. WHILE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ENRIQUE TO NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E TO THE WEST COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL BINARY INTERACTION...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONES WILL NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE ONE ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES LITTLE INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR... ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...CONTINUES TO AFFECT ENRIQUE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED RECENTLY AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPANDING CANOPY OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW ONLY PARTIALLY RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. ENRIQUE SHOULD HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY IN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH WARM WATERS AND MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING...BUT ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 26.5C WATER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE ICON CONSENSUS. SHOULD ENRIQUE MOVE MORE NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 13.3N 113.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 13.9N 115.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 14.6N 117.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 15.1N 119.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 15.6N 121.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 16.5N 125.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 17.0N 129.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 17.0N 133.5W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN