000
WTPZ42 KNHC 032031
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
200 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BANDING FEATURES
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE
BECOME MORE DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED
WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AREA. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE NOW AT T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...CONSISTENT WITH THE
OBSERVED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE CYCLONE
IS SITUATED IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLY CONDUCIVE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS
AND MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...INTENSIFICATION SHOULD HALT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES
MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

SEVEN-E IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NEAR 12 KNOTS. GLOBAL
FORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A POTENTIAL COMPLICATING
FACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 9 DEGREES TO
THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. ASSUMING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE CASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MOTION
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS IN
GENERAL ACCORDANCE WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 13.0N 112.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 13.5N 114.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 116.2W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 118.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS