000
WTPZ42 KNHC 232056
TCDEP2
HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009
200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009
 
DESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE SFMR ON THE
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK SURFACE
WINDS OF 63 KT AND 67 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER...
RESPECTIVELY.  ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN
SOMEWHAT LESS...TWO DROPSONDES RELEASED EAST OF THE CENTER ALSO
MEASURED ROUGHLY 65 KT SURFACE WINDS...WHICH SUPPORT THE SFMR
MEASUREMENTS.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS ANDRES IS BEING UPGRADED
TO A HURRICANE AND IT WAS POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS
MORNING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANDRES WILL NOT
STRENGTHEN ANY MORE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY
WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH LAND INTERACTION THAT THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CENTER
JUST OFF THE COAST AND ASSUMES THAT ANDRES WILL TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE UPDATED
FORECAST IS CLOSE THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 12-24 HOURS...THEN
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND BAMM...AND BAMS THEREAFTER.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 18.6N 105.2W    65 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.9N 106.4W    60 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.9N 107.6W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.7N 109.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.4N 110.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN