000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240230
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008
800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2008
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AS
INDICATED BY A 0125 UTC SSMI PASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT
CHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 12 HOUR OR SO...THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE ENDING. A
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
AND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOME EVEN MORE DETACHED. IT SHOULD
BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR EARLIER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 360/10. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD SLOW DOWN VERY SOON AND TURN MORE THE WEST AS IT
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 15.3N 105.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.8N 105.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 106.3W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 108.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA