000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030842
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008
200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SEPARATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND A STABILIZING
ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS...THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AND KARIN COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  KARINA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW-LAYER FLOW OF A
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
AFTERWARD...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD
INITIATE A MORE SOUTHWEST DRIFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE UKMET.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 20.0N 113.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 114.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.1N 115.3W    25 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH