000
WTPZ42 KNHC 030229
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KARINA HAS
WEAKENED AND THE CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE DROPPING...THUS THE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE UPPER
WINDS ONLY LESSENING A BIT IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
PARAMETERS FROM THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE A RATHER STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
DEPRESSION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW DROP IN INTENSITY...AND SO
DOES THE NHC FORECAST. KARINA MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN
SHOWN IN THE FORECAST IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6.   SOME RIDGING IS FORECAST
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WESTWARD
MOTION.  ASSUMING THAT KARINA REMAINS WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
CAUSE A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IN FEW DAYS...AND
WHATEVER IS LEFT OF KARINA COULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST A
LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 20.0N 112.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N 115.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.7N 115.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE