000
WTPZ42 KNHC 022032
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008
 
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS VERY
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR WILL
DIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW DECAY OF
KARINA.  IF KARINA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL REACH THE
26C SST ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY
DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.

WITH MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY I AM MORE CONFIDENT IN THE CURRENT INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/9.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN
KARINA VERY QUICKLY AND LEAVE ITS REMNANTS TO MEANDER OR DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE HWRF KEEPS KARINA
TOGETHER LONGER AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. 
AGAIN...I AM GOING TO ASSUME THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN CONNECTED
TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MOVE MOSTLY WESTWARD FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS NO MODEL THAT SHOWS THIS TRACK EXPLICITLY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 19.5N 112.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.7N 113.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 114.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.2N 115.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.1N 116.0W    25 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN