000
WTPZ42 KNHC 021541
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM KARINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008
900 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS
SUFFICIENTLY CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CONSIDER THE
SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AT 14Z.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN
THE SHEAR PATTERN INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE FACT THAT NOT LONG
AGO THE CENTER WAS FARTHER FROM THE CONVECTION...I'M GOING TO
INITIATE ADVISORIES A LITTLE BELOW THE CLASSIFICATIONS.  ALTHOUGH
KARINA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIMITING INTENSIFICATION.  BY 36
HOURS OR SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND
IS EXPECTED TO DECAY OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH WITH A SKETCHY
HISTORY ON THE CENTER THIS ESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THE
SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION...AND SHOULD THE SYSTEM SUCCUMB
TO THE SHEAR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BELOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO FAST.
I AM ASSUMING THE SYSTEM STAYS INTACT FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO SO I
HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE MEDIUM
AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1600Z 19.3N 111.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.9N 112.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N 113.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    25 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN