000
WTPZ42 KNHC 212037
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2008
 
FAUSTO IS BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL AS THE CLOUD SIGNATURE IN THE VISIBLE
AND INFRARED IMAGES IS DETERIORATING.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW THAT THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  TAKING A BLEND OF THE 18Z T AND CI DVORAK
NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB SUGGESTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 70 KT.
HOWEVER...AN AMSU PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 65 TO 70 KT BACK AT 1232Z
WHEN THE CYCLONE APPEARED MORE INTACT.  ADDITIONALLY...QUIKSCAT
OBSERVATIONS FROM A 1406Z OVERPASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT
60 KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.
 
FAUSTO'S MOTION IS ABOUT 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS FAUSTO DECAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFS...AND GFDL
MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RATHER COLD WATERS AND A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
GFDL...HRWF...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE 1406Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE ANALYZED GALE FORCE
AND 50 KT WIND RADII.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/2100Z 20.6N 118.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     22/0600Z 21.3N 119.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.8N 121.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     23/0600Z 22.1N 123.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     23/1800Z 22.4N 124.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE