000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210849
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

ALTHOUGH IT APPEARED THAT FAUSTO HAD REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY
YESTERDAY...THE EYE BECAME MORE DEFINED AGAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES
AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 85 KT. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL...24C OCEAN
TEMPERATURES...FAUSTO HAS APPARENTLY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW-
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CAN
STRENGTHEN ANY MORE GIVEN THE MORE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF COOLER
WATERS... AND THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING. FAUSTO WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING
IN AROUND 3 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD...305/11.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS
ALSO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0900Z 20.1N 115.4W    85 KT
 12HR VT     21/1800Z 20.8N 117.0W    75 KT
 24HR VT     22/0600Z 21.6N 119.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.3N 121.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.8N 122.6W    35 KT
 72HR VT     24/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0600Z 26.5N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH