000
WTPZ42 KNHC 210248
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008

LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT INTENSITY.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT A CONSENSUS T4.5 AND A PREVIOUS UW-CIMSS AMSU
INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTS KEEPING FAUSTO AS AN 80 KNOT HURRICANE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
MUCH COOLER SSTS THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. ALL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FAUSTO WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND IT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. 

THE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF FAUSTO IS 310/11. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. MOST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
FAUSTO WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY
IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICAL
FORECAST TRACK.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 19.5N 114.4W    80 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.3N 116.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 21.2N 117.9W    60 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 120.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.3N 121.8W    35 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.7N 125.1W    25 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 25.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN