000 WTPZ42 KNHC 201456 TCDEP2 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008 FAUSTO CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE THIS MORNING. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CAME IN AT A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THUS 75 KT REMAINS THE INTENSITY. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 12 UTC HAVE DEPICTED A MORE WELL-DEFINED EYE...SO THIS ANALYSIS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW. THE TRACK OF FAUSTO IS 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AS THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY A COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND A RATHER SHARP TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOTION HAS NOT BEEN WELL-DEPICTED BY THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS LATELY...WHICH HAVE BEEN CALLING PREMATURELY FOR A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN SPINNING DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE AT ABOUT FAUSTO'S LONGITUDE. THUS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AT THAT TIME. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE HWRF...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTHWEST...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND SIMILAR AFTER THAT. THE HURRICANE IS OVER WATERS OF ONLY 26C CURRENTLY EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY COOL MAKING THE THERMODYNAMICS QUITE HOSTILE...WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD STAY CONDUCIVE. A STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND BY DAY 4 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 18.0N 112.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.2N 114.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.3N 116.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 118.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 21.5N 120.4W 40 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB