000
WTPZ42 KNHC 200241
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS
EVENING...WITH A SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING
THE BANDING EYE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND SO IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...SUSTAINING AT 75 KT.  A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF
MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING
COMMENCES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON
CONSENSUS...INDICATING A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 5 DAY PERIOD.  THIS WEAKENING TREND IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HINT OF
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AROUND DAY 4 AND 5.
 
FAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 310/10...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO
SHOULD PROBABLY START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IN
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS
DERIVED FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0300Z 16.3N 111.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.1N 112.2W    70 KT
 24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.3N 114.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.4N 116.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.6N 118.1W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.1N 122.3W    35 KT
 96HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     25/0000Z 24.5N 129.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN