000
WTPZ42 KNHC 192045
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
WHILE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT FAUSTO COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN...IT
APPEARS THAT IT HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...A BIT EARLIER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT WAS VISIBLE EARLIER TODAY HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY.  IN ADDITION...BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE CYCLONE HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF DVORAK-T
AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. THERE IS A 6 TO 12 HOUR SMALL WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY THAT FAUSTO COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN...BUT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THAT SCENARIO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING...THE 12 HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
AND A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.

FAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 310/7...JUST A TAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO SHOULD
PROBABLY START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE
RIGHT...CLOSE TO THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 15.5N 110.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.3N 111.4W    75 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 113.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N 125.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     24/1800Z 24.0N 129.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB