000
WTPZ42 KNHC 191459
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
SLOWLY BUT SURELY...FAUSTO APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING.  AN EYE IS
NOT APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE QUITE
COLD RIGHT OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES...WHICH WERE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 90 KT FROM TAFB.  FAUSTO
WILL REMAIN OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 27 CELSIUS FOR
ABOUT 12 MORE HOURS...SO A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. 
BEYOND THAT TIME AS WATERS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...GRADUALLY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS
BUT THEN A MORE RAPID DECLINE AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE STRONG
SST GRADIENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY GREATER
PEAK INTENSITY AT 12 HOURS BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

FAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 305/7...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN
BEFORE...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT HEADING IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD OVER THE
PACIFIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO WILL PROBABLY
START TO TURN LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO THE MORE
NORTHERLY TRACKS FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF THAN THE OTHER
MODELS...SINCE THESE TWO MODELS LIKELY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC
DEPICTION OF THE DEEP CIRCULATION.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO KEEP UP WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
SOLUTIONS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 15.2N 110.0W    80 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.9N 111.1W    85 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 112.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.1N 114.6W    75 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N 116.8W    65 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 126.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 24.0N 130.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB