000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190841
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008
 
FAUSTO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A BANDING EYE IN RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT
TO 90 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT AS A
COMPROMISE.  FAUSTO HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE IT CROSSES THE 26
DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM.  SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. 
BEYOND 48 HOURS...FAUSTO WILL ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY FALLING SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SO BRISK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. 
 
FAUSTO APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE...AND TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. 
THEREAFTER...THE STEERING BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS FAUSTO IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW CYCLONE.
TRACK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO DIFFERENT 
DEPICTIONS OF FAUSTO'S STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH.  IT IS HARD TO
IMAGINE FAUSTO MAINTAINING APPRECIABLE VERTICAL DEPTH DURING THIS
TIME SINCE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS ALL OF WHICH HANG ON TO A
RATHER DEEP SYSTEM.   
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0900Z 14.8N 109.4W    75 KT
 12HR VT     19/1800Z 15.4N 110.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.3N 111.9W    80 KT
 36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 115.3W    65 KT
 72HR VT     22/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N 124.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     24/0600Z 23.0N 128.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME