000
WTPZ42 KNHC 190244
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0004Z SSMIS OVERPASS DEPICT A SMALL
BANDING EYE FEATURE BENEATH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND A
MORE INTENSE RAIN BAND WITH -80C COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE EAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE INNER CORE AND A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT.  A WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS
SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST OF 85 KT...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE
SHIPS AND THE GFDL.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE
OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION IS 290/8...WITHIN A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID- LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO
IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD INCREASE
A LITTLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH DAY 3...THEN IS NUDGED TOWARD THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH
INDICATE A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 14.3N 109.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W    80 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 15.6N 111.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 113.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 114.9W    70 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.7N 119.1W    55 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 123.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.5N 127.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN