000 WTPZ42 KNHC 182100 TCDEP2 HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008 FAUSTO IS EXHIBITING VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...AND RECENTLY THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE HAVE BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...AND SO DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...BUT THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE HURRICANE WILL NOT STRENGTHEN SOME. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...SO THE WARMTH OF THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 28 CELSIUS AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...BUT ONLY AT ABOUT ONE DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY...SO THE WATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS AT 75 KT WHILE GFDL REACHES 84 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME ONCE FAUSTO PASSES OVER THE SST GRADIENT. THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AS FAUSTO HEADS TOWARD A SLOWLY DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BECOME REESTABLISHED IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...SO OVERALL ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...EXCEPT AT THE VERY END WHEN THEY DISAGREE ON IF OR WHEN FAUSTO WILL TURN WEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELIES ON THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT FORECAST A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RATHER THAN A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT TURNS WEST SOONER AS SHOWN BY MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS. THE NEW TRACK IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 14.1N 108.4W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 109.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 15.3N 110.9W 85 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 16.2N 112.4W 85 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 114.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 23/1800Z 22.5N 127.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB