000
WTPZ42 KNHC 181501
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED
IMAGERY...BUT A SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1253Z THAT JUST CAME IN REVEALS
ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE A CONSENSUS 65 KT...AND
COMBINED WITH THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE PROVIDE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
FAUSTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...THE THIRD OF THE 2008 EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON.  CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...WITH NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RATHER WARM SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNSURPRISING 285/11.  FEW CHANGES
TO THE MOTION ARE INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
TEMPORARILY IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT
THE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON DAYS 3-5. 
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS...BUT THE
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/1500Z 13.6N 108.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/0000Z 14.0N 109.3W    75 KT
 24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.7N 110.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     20/0000Z 15.7N 112.1W    85 KT
 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 113.9W    85 KT
 72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 127.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB