000
WTPZ42 KNHC 180817
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN FAUSTO'S CLOUD PATTERN THIS EVENING...WITH AN
INTENSE BANDING FEATURE RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AT
60 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM...THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
 
LARGE SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A TRANSIENT MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION OR VORTICITY MAXIMA PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE MODELS THEN REVEAL THIS FEATURE MOVING WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS AND
WEAKENS BY DAY 4.  SUBSEQUENTLY...RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
CREATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS DERIVED FROM A VARIABLE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.
 
WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON 0058Z QUIKSCAT.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 13.3N 106.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 13.7N 108.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 14.3N 109.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 14.9N 111.0W    75 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 15.7N 112.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.7N 116.6W    65 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     23/0600Z 20.5N 125.0W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA