000
WTPZ42 KNHC 171501
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
 
FAUSTO APPEARED EARLIER TO BE STRENGTHENING...BUT FIRST LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS
DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SEEMED.  IN
ADDITION...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 45-50
KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT DESPITE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT.  THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...HOWEVER...WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER
WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
GRADUALLY WEAKENS A LITTLE.  ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN HEADING ARE
SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 11.6N 104.1W    50 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.3N 108.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 12.8N 109.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 13.3N 111.5W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB