000
WTPZ42 KNHC 170835
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A
WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF
THE TWO SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STRONG SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED
APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. THEREFORE..THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL.  AS A NOTE...THE HWRF MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO 116 KNOTS BY 84
HOURS...AND THIS IS A BIG INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH
BASICALLY WEAKENED THE CYCLONE.    

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE
IS 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. FAUSTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.
HOWEVER...FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
ERODED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS IS THE PATTERN PROVIDED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ONLY THE ECMWF IS OUTSIDE AND
WELL-NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 11.4N 103.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 11.8N 105.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N 108.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 13.0N 109.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.5N 111.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 118.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA