000
WTPZ42 KNHC 162030
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT EXPOSED AND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES
AND T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN SET AT 35 KNOTS. WITH WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR...A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. BY DAY 4...FAUSTO SHOULD BE
NEARING COOLER WATERS AND INTENSIFICATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

BECAUSE FAUSTO WAS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST
ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...THIS FASTER MOTION
COULD BE PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE REFORMATION. FAUSTO IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AROUND A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED IS
CLUSTERED INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 11.3N  99.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.6N 101.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 13.5N 107.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 14.0N 108.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W    60 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA