000
WTPZ42 KNHC 161429
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION BUT STILL THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS A SLOW STRENGTHENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CONTROLLING ELIDA'S MOTION
IS ALSO STEERING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST. SINCE THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS
INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 11.0N  96.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 11.3N  98.7W    40 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 11.7N 101.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 12.3N 103.3W    50 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 13.0N 105.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 108.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA