000
WTPZ42 KNHC 031442
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008
 
MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING
DETACHED FROM THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BOTH SHEAR AND COOL WATERS
ARE REALLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  BORIS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. 
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...BORIS SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 17.8N 129.2W    40 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.8N 131.0W    25 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/1200Z...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA