000 WTPZ42 KNHC 020830 TCDEP2 HURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008 SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE EYE OF BORIS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT BORIS LOOKS EVEN STRONGER WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY... THE INTENSITY WILL ONLY BE BUMPED BACK UP TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MAY NOT BE EFFECTIVELY MIXING ITS STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BORIS IS CONTINUING A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER...FORCING THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE STORM WILL ALSO LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER IN A FEW DAYS...MEANING THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED MORE BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF BORIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY FAST DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS NO LONGER PARALLELING THE STRONG SST GRADIENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND INSTEAD MOVING INTO THE COLDER WATER QUICKLY. ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH RELATIVELY RAPIDLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS. IF BORIS DOES NOT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 15.9N 126.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 16.4N 127.4W 60 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 16.9N 128.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 17.1N 129.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.7N 133.1W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0600Z 16.0N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 07/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE