000
WTPZ42 KNHC 302046
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
 
BORIS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AND HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN EITHER. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND UNIMPRESSIVE MOST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION DURING THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. BORIS COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY IN THE
NEAR TERM...12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.

BORIS IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 TO 13 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A RIDGE NORTH OF BORIS STRONG ENOUGH TO
STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH SOME
MODELS MOVE BORIS EASTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE DISCREPANCY
AMONG TRACK MODELS IS LESS OBVIOUS.  THIS CAN BE TRANSLATED INTO A
REDUCTION OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 14.7N 122.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.6N 123.9W    55 KT
 24HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/1800Z 14.5N 127.5W    40 KT
 72HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N 129.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     04/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA