000
WTPZ42 KNHC 301428
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
YESTERDAY. MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS ON
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5
AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS.
ALTHOUGH BORIS IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO DECREASE SO A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM IS
POSSIBLE. BOTH HWRF AND GFDL INSIST ON SOME STRENGTHENING BUT THE
WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
BORIS IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. DUE TO THE
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF
BORIS...GLOBAL MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENTS BUT
MAINTAIN BORIS SOUTH OF A RIDGE. THEREFORE...A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 14.8N 120.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.7N 122.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 14.6N 123.5W    55 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 14.6N 124.8W    45 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N 128.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA