000 WTPZ42 KNHC 300829 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008 BORIS' OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT. WHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...BORIS STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE STATISTICAL- DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...SHOW LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING WHILE THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS...HWRF AND GFDL...BOTH SHOW BORIS INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 80 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BORIS BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. BORIS REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING...275/11. THIS OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY EAST OF BORIS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS NO LONGER ABRUPTLY TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST. RATHER...THEY ESSENTIALLY SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING STATIONARY BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEING A LITTLE NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED IN THIS DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 14.9N 119.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 15.0N 120.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 15.0N 122.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 14.9N 123.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 14.7N 125.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 127.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 05/0600Z 14.5N 129.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME