000
WTPZ42 KNHC 292044
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008
 
THE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED IN THE CONVECTION BUT THE OVERALL
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.  BORIS IS
HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR.
THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AND THIS FORECAST
BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
BORIS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. SOME
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AND ARE NOW KEEPING BORIS
SEPARATED FROM THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.
CONSEQUENTLY...THESE MODELS KEEP BORIS MOVING WESTWARD.  NOW ONLY
THE GFS AND THE GFDL INSIST ON MERGING BORIS WITH THE NEW
DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL BORIS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/2100Z 14.9N 117.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 15.0N 121.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W    30 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA