000
WTPZ42 KNHC 270237
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
800 PM PDT THU JUL 26 2007
 
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DALILA
MOVES OVER 24C WATER...WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS BEGINNING TO BE EVIDENT.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT 30 TO 35 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT.  A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION
OVER COLD WATER IS EXPECTED...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS LIKELY WITHIN
24-36 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
HWRF AND GFDL...BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
DECAYING CONVECTION AND COLD WATER AHEAD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE...AND JUST SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 22.6N 116.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 23.2N 117.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 23.8N 119.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 24.2N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 24.5N 122.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN