000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260840
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
200 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2007
 
DALILA IS NOT DONE YET. WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE HAS DISSIPATED...NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN AT 45 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT HAS INCHED UPWARDS TO 41 KT.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED SOLELY ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. DALILA'S 11TH HOUR HEROICS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE ANTICIPATED
TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
GRADUAL SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
DALILA IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 310/8.  DEEP CONVECTION
SHOULD FIZZLE LATER TODAY AND THE DECAYING CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0900Z 20.9N 113.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/1800Z 21.6N 114.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 115.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/1800Z 23.3N 117.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/0600Z 23.9N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0600Z 24.5N 121.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     31/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME