000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260229
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
800 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007
 
DALILA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...BOTH IN BANDS SOUTH
OF THE CENTER AND NOW OVER THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 18Z WAS
PARTIALLY BLANKED OUT...BUT WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSITY OF AT
LEAST 40 KT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 45
KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT GIVES 37 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 40 KT BUT MIGHT BE A SHADE LOW. REGARDLESS...DALILA WILL BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE
LARGE CIRCULATION SHOULD SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7.  RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE DECAYING CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD IN
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AFTER THAT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT
TAKE THE DECAYING CYCLONE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/0300Z 20.4N 112.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/1200Z 21.1N 113.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/0000Z 22.0N 115.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     27/1200Z 22.8N 117.0W    30 KT
 48HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/0000Z 24.0N 121.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     31/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN