000
WTPZ42 KNHC 252031
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
200 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007
 
DALILA IS WINDING DOWN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY.  EVEN
THOUGH THE SSTS BENEATH DALILA'S CENTER ARE ABOUT 27.5C...THE
STRONG GRADIENT OF SST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS
ALLOWING DRY STABLE AIR TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION.  A BLEND OF THE T AND CI
DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT.
 
DALILA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT...DUE TO
THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. AS IT SPINS DOWN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
DALILA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND WILL CROSS THE
26C SST ISOTHERM. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIZZLE AT
THAT POINT AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS. THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. DALILA MIGHT NOT BE AN IDENTIFIABLE LOW BY DAY 5...BUT A
POSITION IS GIVEN JUST IN CASE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 20.1N 112.4W    40 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 20.8N 113.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 21.7N 114.7W    30 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 22.3N 116.2W    30 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA