000
WTPZ42 KNHC 251434
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
800 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NORTHERN HALF IS ALREADY
FEELING THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS WHICH PREVAIL NORTH OF 20
NORTH. IN FACT...LATEST SST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER THAN
NORMAL WATERS IN THAT REGION.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...DALILA
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE PORTION OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER COOLER
WATERS. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION HAVE GREATLY
DIMINISHED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING
AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
DALILA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS WESTWARD AND DALILA BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE...A TURN
MORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN
SHOWING THE WESTWARD TURN.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/1500Z 19.7N 111.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     26/0000Z 20.6N 112.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     27/0000Z 22.3N 115.4W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     28/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/1200Z 24.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA