000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250839 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 200 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007 THE OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA APPEARS A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS BROKEN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THESE DATA. DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/7. THIS MOTION APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF WEAKNESS WITHIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL ERODE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST. THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND GFDN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS NOW INDICATE A TURN WESTWARD...AND SOME EVEN SHOW A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST BEYOND DAY 4. DESPITE AN OTHERWISE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...DALILA APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF STABLE AIR. DALILA MAY BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. STILL...THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION QUICKLY SHUTS BEYOND 36 HOURS AS DALILA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE LOWER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 19.0N 111.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 19.7N 111.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 20.6N 112.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 21.4N 114.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME